I believe most of us, to one extent or another, are trying to predict the future. If you knew what was coming up, so many decisions would be simplified. It would be easier to know when to buy a house, start a business or save extra money. Obviously, experience shows us that it’s pretty damn hard to know what’s coming up. There have been plenty of “black swans” in the last decade: September 11, Hurricane Katrina and the current banking crisis are just a few that come to mind as unplanned, consequential events, at least for Americans. But unique occurrences aside, can we ever hope to get a reasonably coherent idea of the future without quickly getting overwhelmed by all the variables at play?Using techniques developed for Royal Dutch/Shell’s scenario planning, Peter Schwartz’ The Art of the Long View explains a clear, accessible and manageable method for making some educated guesses about the future. You might not get the “right” answer, but the process of imagining the future helps form the strategies you will need to manage it.
15
Mar
08
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